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Intel (INTC): What Actually Drives the Business Now

Intel (INTC): What Actually Drives the Business Now

Intel now runs two businesses with opposite economics, and that split is what moves the stock. The product group sells chips at a profit. The foundry builds them and still loses money every quarter.

Everything else, including Washington’s stake and this week’s share sale, sits downstream of that gap. The company reported second-quarter 2026 revenue of $16.1 billion on July 23, up 25% from a year earlier. GAAP gross margin reached 40.4%, against 27.5% a year prior.

The product group is carrying the company

Intel Products brought in $15.1 billion last quarter, a 28% rise. Data Center and AI led it with $6.3 billion, up 59%, and posted $2.5 billion of operating income.

Client Computing and Physical AI added $8.9 billion, up 13%, with $2.3 billion of operating income. Those two lines are the reason consolidated gross margin moved as much as it did.

This is the part of Intel that looks like the rest of the sector. Set against our map of the category leaders in semiconductors, the pattern is familiar: data center demand is doing the heavy lifting.

Foundry is the swing factor

Intel Foundry reported $5.8 billion of revenue, up 31%, and an operating loss of $2.089 billion. That loss narrowed from a year earlier, but it remains the largest single drag on reported earnings.

Most of that revenue is internal. Add the two segments and you get about $20.9 billion against $16.1 billion consolidated, so several billion is work Foundry does for Intel Products and gets eliminated in consolidation.

That distinction matters. Until external customers are a real share of the mix, Foundry is a cost center with a revenue line, not yet a rival to the pure-play fabs behind most AI chip stocks.

Washington sits on the cap table

In August 2025 the federal government converted Intel’s remaining CHIPS Act money into equity. It took 433.3 million shares at $20.47, roughly a 9.9% passive, non-voting position, funded by $5.7 billion of unpaid grants plus $3.2 billion from the Secure Enclave program.

There is also a warrant for another 5% if Intel stops being majority owner of the foundry business. That clause quietly makes a foundry spin-off more expensive than it first looks.

The August raise changes the arithmetic

On August 11, 2026 Intel priced an upsized $20 billion common stock offering: 210,526,315 shares at $95 apiece, for net proceeds near $19.7 billion, earmarked for general corporate purposes including capital expenditure.

That is a large block of new shares landing on a count that already absorbed the government position. Dilution now belongs in the model for anyone screening undervalued semiconductor names on per-share metrics.

What to watch from here

Three things. Whether the Foundry loss keeps narrowing, whether 18A converts into committed external customers, and how quickly the raised cash becomes working capacity.

Intel said 18A-P entered risk production, and that a subset of Core Ultra Series 3 processors, code-named Panther Lake, is in high-volume manufacturing using ASML High-NA EUV tools. Third-quarter guidance is $15.8 billion to $16.8 billion.

Is Intel profitable right now?

Not on a GAAP basis. Second-quarter 2026 GAAP results came in at a loss of $2.16 per share, while non-GAAP earnings were $0.42. The foundry operating loss accounts for much of that distance.

Who holds the largest stake in Intel?

The US government holds the 433.3 million shares created by the 2025 CHIPS conversion, about 9.9% of the company at the time. The position carries no board seat and no voting rights.

What is Intel 18A?

It is Intel’s leading-edge manufacturing process. The company says the 18A-P variant has entered risk production, and Panther Lake processors built on the platform are already in high-volume manufacturing.